A counter argument to the AI bubble claims
A bubble happens when supply overwhelms demand. Too much of a good thing, too few buyers left to chase it. But the AI era has flipped that logic on its head. The problem is not surplus, it is shortage.
ChatGPT has 800MM WAUs. Chips are sold out before they are made. Data centers are rationing power. Even the electricity grid is feeling the strain. Every major company, government, and startup is competing for the same scarce resource: compute.
That does not look like speculation. When the essential inputs of a new industry are constrained, it means the foundation is still being poured. Scarcity signals construction.
This is the buildout phase of AI’s industrial revolution, not the blowoff phase of a bubble. It mirrors the early electricity boom, when turbines and transmission lines lagged behind the demand they unleashed. The same pattern is repeating, only faster and at planetary scale.
AI is not flooded with excess. It is bottlenecked by potential.